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News Article
How much precipitation will it take to end the drought?
Denver Water welcomes any moisture that falls, but when it comes to filling reservoirs, the damage has already been done.
Bad news, it’s still pretty droughty out there.
Despite recent precipitation, conditions remain bleak from a water supply standpoint in Denver Water’s collection system, following historically low snowpack over the winter.
After the latest round of moisture in Colorado, some have been curious about how much precipitation it would take to end the drought and lift watering restrictions.
Short answer: enough that might lead some to build an ark.
More seriously, and unfortunately, there are very limited potential scenarios — including even a very heavy monsoon season — that could meaningfully alter the outlook this year.
While any precipitation is more than welcome, a couple of late season snowstorms or a few rainy spring days will not lead to recovery. That’s why the Denver Board of Water Commissioners declared a Stage 1 drought response on March 25, 2026.
“Since the beginning of the water year in October, our collection system has received about 7 inches of water less than we typically see,” said Nathan Elder, manager of water supply for Denver Water.
“In snow terms, that’s anywhere from 70 to 100 inches of snow that didn’t fall this year. The lack of snow, combined with dry soils, early plant growth and record warmth, leads to almost no runoff, meaning the damage to our water resources has already been done.”
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Regardless of recent moisture, Denver Water’s reservoirs are going to take a significant hit this year.
Right now, things don’t appear that bad, as current storage levels are near 80% full, which is only slightly below where they should be for this time of year. The problem is that most of the snow has already melted and reservoir storage is declining. Typically, this is when storage reservoirs should be refilling, ideally to 100%.
“In a normal year, we end the winter with our reservoirs around 85% full, at which point snowmelt runs into our reservoirs and fills them as close to 100% full as possible, with storage usually peaking in late June,” said Elder.
“When all the snow melts, reservoirs stop filling and begin to draw down for the summer as people use more water. This year, our reservoirs are as full as they’re going to get, so all we can do is try to hold onto as much water as we can for as long as we can.”
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Streamflow forecasts are calling for runoff levels to be 10-30% of normal in Denver Water’s collection system in 2026.
Denver Water has turned its focus to stretching water supplies by implementing mandatory watering restrictions, requiring customers to reduce water use by 20%.
The good news is that Denver Water’s customers have historically proven they will answer the call to conserve during drought. And this is where any precipitation helps — by helping people avoid outdoor watering, a critical factor in stretching water supplies a little bit longer.
“We really need everyone to help by following watering restrictions and by keeping sprinklers off any time we do get moisture,” said Greg Fisher, manager of demand planning and efficiency for Denver Water.
“Stretching our water supplies as much as we can is critical right now in case drought conditions last into next year or beyond. We are relying on everyone to do their part to help us manage through these unprecedented times.”
Why snowpack reigns supreme
As welcome as it would be, a rainy monsoon season isn’t going to impact water supplies as much as a snowy winter. On average, 80-90% of Denver Water’s runoff comes from snowpack.
This is because rain does not contribute as much water to streamflow as snowmelt. There are a few reasons for this:
- Rain showers in the mountains are typically short and isolated compared to winter storms, which move slower and cover more surface area. In a 2022 story, 9NEWS meteorologist Cory Reppenhagen explains that a large monsoon thunderstorm might drop 2 inches of rain over 900 square miles in 20 different, isolated locations in one day. On the other hand, an average winter storm might cover 200,000 square miles with 2 inches of water equivalent (around 20 inches of snow). That’s 11 times more water in a winter storm than a stormy monsoon day.
- Monsoon season lasts, at most, three months, while winter snow can accumulate over seven or eight months. And since it’s typically hot in monsoon season, evaporation and thirsty vegetation take much of the rain right back.
- While rain comes fast and leaves fast, snowpack increases over time and doesn’t evaporate nearly as quickly, acting as another reservoir of sorts.
That's why, without a doubt, when it comes to water supply, snowpack is king. And this year, the throne was vacant.
Unfortunately, that means that there’s not a realistic path out of the drought in 2026.
Reason for hope?
Surely there’s a bright side somewhere, right?
*El Niño has entered the chat.
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One exceptional snow season might do the trick and refill diminished reservoirs, and a developing El Niño could help with that, as El Niño years typically bring more moisture to the region.
Conversely, it just as easily could take multiple good snow years to get back on track, meaning another year of drought and drought restrictions in 2027, even with a reasonably snowy winter rebound.
It’s all up in the air, as it were.
“Hope is not a strategy,” said Elder. “While we are rooting for next winter to deliver in a big way, now is no time to get complacent based on projections about what the weather might do nine or 10 months from now. Drought is our current reality, so please, Use Only What You Need.”